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Model uncertainty in matrix exponential spatial growth regression models

Manfred Fischer and Philipp Piribauer ()
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Philipp Piribauer: Department of Economics, Vienna University of Economics and Business

Department of Economics Working Papers from Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics

Abstract: This paper considers the problem of model uncertainty associated with variable selection and specification of the spatial weight matrix in spatial growth regression models in general and growth regression models based on the matrix exponential spatial specification in particular. A natural solution, supported by formal probabilistic reasoning, is the use of Bayesian model averaging which assigns probabilities on the model space and deals with model uncertainty by mixing over models, using the posterior model probabilities as weights. This paper proposes to adopt Bayesian information criterion model weights since they have computational advantages over fully Bayesian model weights. The approach is illustrated for both identifying model covariates and unveiling spatial structures present in pan-European growth data.

Keywords: model comparison; model uncertainty; spatial Durbin matrix exponential growth models; spatial weight structures; European regions (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C11 C21 C52 O47 O52 R11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ecm, nep-fdg, nep-geo and nep-ure
Date: 2013-10
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Related works:
Working Paper: Model uncertainty in matrix exponential spatial growth regression models (2014) Downloads
Working Paper: Model uncertainty in matrix exponential spatial growth regression models (2013) Downloads
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