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US Monetary Policy in a Globalized World

Jesus Crespo Cuaresma (), Gernot Doppelhofer (), Martin Feldkircher and Florian Huber
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Gernot Doppelhofer: Norwegian School of Economics

Department of Economics Working Papers from Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics

Abstract: We analyze the interaction between monetary policy in the US and the global economy proposing a new class of Bayesian global vector autoregressive models that accounts for time-varying parameters and stochastic volatility (TVP-SV-GVAR). Our results suggest that US monetary policy responds to shocks to the global economy, in particular to global aggregate demand and monetary policy shocks. On the other hand, US-based contractionary monetary policy shocks lead to persistent international output contractions and a drop in global inflation rates, coupled with rising interest rates in advanced economies and a real depreciation of currencies with respect to the US dollar. We find considerable evidence for heterogeneity in the spillovers across countries, as well for changes in the transmission of monetary policy shocks over time.

Keywords: Global vector autoregression; time-varying parameters; stochastic volatility; monetary policy; international spillovers (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C30 E52 F41 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-mac and nep-mon
Date: 2015-11
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Working Paper: US Monetary Policy in a Globalized World (2016) Downloads
Working Paper: US Monetary Policy in a Globalized World (2016) Downloads
Working Paper: US Monetary Policy in a Globalized World (2015) Downloads
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