Modeling Commuter Mobility in Stockholm: A Spatial Panel Approach Using Mobile Phone Data

Marina Toger, Umut Türk, John Östh and Manfred Fischer ()

No 1, Working Papers in Regional Science from WU Vienna University of Economics and Business

Abstract: This paper examines the sociodemographic and socioeconomic determinants of regional commuter mobility in the Greater Stockholm Area using a heteroscedastic spatial Durbin panel data model estimated via Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. Drawing on mobile phone–derived origin–destination flows from the MIND database, the analysis exploits unusually fine spatial and temporal granularity across a balanced panel of 675 regions over the period 2018–2023. A k-nearest neighbor spatial weight matrix (k = 18), selected via Bayesian model comparison, captures the topological structure of interregional connectivity. By modeling spatial lags in both the dependent and independent variables, the framework enables explicit recovery of direct (own-region) and indirect (spillover) effects from scalar summary measures of the matrix of partial derivatives — providing robust posterior inference on how sociodemographic and socioeconomic conditions propagate through space. This approach addresses a key limitation of conventional non-spatial methods, which risk producing biased estimates by ignoring spatial interdependence. Empirical results confirm that spatial spillovers predominate over direct effects, with educational attainment and car ownership emerging as the principal determinants of commuter mobility, while age composition plays a comparatively modest role. These findings underscore that evaluating direct effects in isolation systematically underestimates the broader societal returns to mobility enhancing regional policies.

Keywords: Spatial econometrics; Bayesian estimation; heteroscedastic spatial Durbin panel data model; GSM- based mobility flow data,; spatial spillover effects; Greater Stockholm Area (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-05-15
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dcm, nep-geo, nep-tre and nep-ure
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