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General Bayesian time-varying parameter VARs for predicting government bond yields

Manfred Fischer (), Niko Hauzenberger (), Florian Huber and Michael Pfarrhofer

No 2021/01, Working Papers in Regional Science from WU Vienna University of Economics and Business

Abstract: Time-varying parameter (TVP) regressions commonly assume that time-variation in the coefficients is determined by a simple stochastic process such as a random walk. While such models are capable of capturing a wide range of dynamic patterns, the true nature of time variation might stem from other sources, or arise from different laws of motion. In this paper, we propose a flexible TVP VAR that assumes the TVPs to depend on a panel of partially latent covariates. The latent part of these covariates differ in their state dynamics and thus capture smoothly evolving or abruptly changing coefficients. To determine which of these covariates are important, and thus to decide on the appropriate state evolution, we introduce Bayesian shrinkage priors to perform model selection. As an empirical application, we forecast the US term structure of interest rates and show that our approach performs well relative to a set of competing models. We then show how the model can be used to explain structural breaks in coefficients related to the US yield curve.

Keywords: Bayesian shrinkage; interest rate forecasting; latent effect modifers; MCMC sampling; time-varying parameter regression (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021-02-22
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ecm, nep-ets and nep-for
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