Does a Simple Trading Rule Beat Random Timing in Solana Token Markets?

Jacob Damböck and Alfred Taudes

No 2/2026, Working Paper Series/Institute for Cryptoeconomics/Interdisciplinary Research from WU Vienna University of Economics and Business

Abstract: This paper tests whether a fixed Bollinger-band rule selects advantageous trading times for actively traded Solana tokens. The sample contains 542 observations, each covering one token during one quarter, from 2024Q3 through 2026Q2. Tokens are selected before each trading window and assessed separately for data quality. Trades execute at the opening price of the next observed candle that meets the trading eligibility rules, subject to volume-based capacity, network fees, and slippage. The comparison uses randomized trading schedules that preserve observed exposure and net-return adjustments. Aggregate strategy return is 88.59%, but does not exceed returns from randomized schedules (one-sided p = 0.607). The median difference between strategy and matched buy-and-hold returns across all token-quarter observations is 20.89 percentage points and lies in the upper tail of the randomized results (one-sided p = 0.015). The incremental timing contribution relative to the randomized median is 4.06 percentage points. A provider-field and on-chain audit supports treating observed swap prices as fee-inclusive, so the baseline adds no second percentage decentralized-exchange (DEX) fee. An additional 0.25% per entry and exit swap reduces the median excess to -11.80 percentage points. Across eight quarter clusters, the conventional Student-t interval for aggregate strategy return includes zero, whereas Webb and sign-flip intervals do not. The results do not support aggregate timing superiority or a generally profitable strategy. The positive median timing result depends on the retained sample and fee-inclusive baseline.

Date: 2026
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