Don’t Lose Your Cool: Temperature and Gun-Violence in North America

Taylor Wright Nikolai Cook

LCERPA Working Papers from Laurier Centre for Economic Research and Policy Analysis

Abstract: Hotter temperatures due to climate change are expected to increase interpersonal violence. We find temperature increases gun-violence in Chicago not through hot days getting hotter but through cold days growing milder, which previous climate change damage predictions may overlook. For every season except summer, a 1â—¦C warmer day results in 1.4% more gun-violence. Using data from automated crime reporting allows us to confirm criminal behaviour (rather than criminal statistics production) is temperature-increasing. We also find evidence that the COVID-19 pandemic and its lockdowns exacerbate the temperature-violence relationship, while positive shocks such as local NFL wins attenuate it.

Date: 2024-09-06, Revised 2024
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