VAR-ing the economy of the Netherlands
Jan Jacobs () and
Albert Van der Horst ()
No 24, Working Papers from Centre for Economic Research, University of Groningen and University of Twente
This paper adopts the vector autoregression (VAR) approach to modelling the economy of the Netherlands. A VAR system with four endogenous variables---gross domestic product, inflation, the capital market interest rate and the money market interest rate---is built. The small, open character of the Dutch economy suggests the inclusion of foreign exogenous variables, so we also construct a VARX system (with world trade and the German capital market and money market rates as exogenous variables). Both the VAR system and the VARX system are estimated with error-correction mechanisms to take proper account of the non-stationarity of the variables. The VAR system and the VARX system are compared to the IBS-CCSO model, a structural macroeconometric model of the economy of the Netherlands. Compared to the IBS-CCSO model, the VAR system gives better results for production and inflation, whereas the structural macroeconometric IBS-CCSO model is to be preferred for the interest rates. The VARX system outperforms not only the VAR system but also the IBS-CCSO model.
Keywords: vector autoregression; forecast comparison (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 C53 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
Our link check indicates that this URL is bad, the error code is: 404 Not Found
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wop:ccsowp:0024
Access Statistics for this paper
More papers in Working Papers from Centre for Economic Research, University of Groningen and University of Twente Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Thomas Krichel ().