Assessing the Impact of Modernization on Fertility: The Case of Mozambique

V.A. Ceccato

Working Papers from International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

Abstract: Mozambique is one of the poorest countries in the world. It also has one of the world's highest birth rates. Until recently there has been virtually no way to study Mozambique's high fertility because of the civil war. This paper uses a very recent survey of Mozambican women from 1997. The objective of this paper is to assess the impact of modernization on fertility in Mozambique, using as a background the "supply-demand theory" presented by Easterlin and Crimmins (1985). The first part of this paper describes the indicators of modernization for Mozambique by using maps, and indicates eventual correlations. The second part deals with the estimation of equations for demand for children, the supply of children and the use of contraception. The third part shows how the modernization variables visualized in the first part of the paper influence all these equations. The results show that the country has one of the highest demands for children in the world, but also one of the largest supply of children, followed by high infant and child mortality. In many provinces, the regulation costs are still high. Those who deliberately use contraceptives already have many children. Among the modernization variables, education is the factor that most affects supply, demand and also regulation costs in Mozambique.

Date: 2000-08
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