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Bayesian Modelling of Catch in a Northwest Atlantic Fishery

Carmen Fernandez, Eduardo Ley and Mark Steel ()
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Carmen Fernandez: University of Saint Andrews

Econometrics from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: We model daily catches of fishing boats in the Grand Bank fishing grounds. We use data on catches per species for a number of vessels collected by the European Union in the context of the Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Organization. Many variables can be thought to influence the amount caught: a number of ship characteristics (such as the size of the ship, the fishing technique used, the mesh size of the nets, etc.), are obvious candidates, but one can also consider the season or the actual location of the catch. Our database leads to 28 possible regressors (arising from six continuous variables and four categorical variables, whose 22 levels are treated separately), resulting in a set of 177 million possible linear regression models for the log of catch. Zero observations are modelled separately through a probit model. Inference is based on Bayesian model averaging, using a Markov chain Monte Carlo approach. Particular attention is paid to prediction of catch for single and aggregated ships.

Keywords: Bayesian Model Averaging, Choice of Regressors, Bayesian model averaging; Categorical variables; Grand Bank fishery; Modelling Fish Catch; Predictive inference; Probit model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C11 C52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eec and nep-mic
Date: 2001-10-06, Revised 2001-11-23
Note: Type of Document - Tex; prepared on MacOS, TeXtures; to print on any printer; figures: included. Revised for JRSS-C- (Applied Statistics). Data and f77 code available from:
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Related works:
Journal Article: Bayesian modelling of catch in a north-west Atlantic fishery (2002) Downloads
Working Paper: Bayesian modelling of catch in a Northwest Atlantic Fishery (2001) Downloads
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