A Self-Consistent Model for the Forward Price Dynamics

Vlad Makhankov
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Vlad Makhankov: BusinessMath

Econometrics from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: We consider mean-reverting stochastic processes and build a self- consistent model for forward price dynamics and their applications in power industries. This model with stochastic volatility of the forward price is built using the ideas and equations of stochastic differential geometry in order to close the system of equations for the forward price and its volatility. Stationary distributions for the forward price volatility are found analytically as well as the forward price curves in the one factor case. We consider two models for regular forward price volatility. 1)Pure exponential two parameter model with zero asymptotic. 2)Three parameter exponential model with non-zero asymptotic. The first model is a toy one although it can be used in the case of long terms, the second one is quite reliable for short terms. Those models will also play a role of initial conditions for a stochastic process described forward price volatility. We compare our results with those known from the literature.

Keywords: Forward price; volatility; stochastic; mean-reverting process (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C30 C31 C50 C60 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 25 pages
Date: 2003-08-26
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-rmg
Note: Type of Document - Word; prepared on Word file; to print on HP LaserJet; pages: 25 ; figures: included 6 figures. Word for Windows document submitted via ftp
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