EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

Can fear beat hope? A story of GARCH-in-Mean-Level effects for Emerging Market Country Risks

Maurício Une and Marcelo Savino Portugal
Additional contact information
Marcelo Savino Portugal: PPGE/UFRGS

Econometrics from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: Upon winning the 2002 presidential elections, event that considerably increased the Brazilian country risk levels and volatility, Lula celebrated by declaring: “hope has beaten fear”. Extending Une and Portugal (2004), the aim of this paper is twofold: to empirically test the interrelations between country risk conditional mean (“hope”) and conditional variance (“fear”) and cast light on the role of country risk stability in the conduction of macroeconomic policies in developing small open economies. We compare the forecasting performance of various alternative GARCH-in-Mean-Level models for n-step conditional volatility point forecasts of the Brazilian country risk estimated for the period May 1994 - February 2005. The results support the idea that both hope and fear play important roles in the Brazilian case and confirms that hope and fear act in the same direction.

Keywords: nonlinear GARCH; GARCH-in-Mean-Level effect; country risk; fear of disruption; forecast performance (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 F47 G14 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 18 pages
Date: 2005-09-04
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ets, nep-fin, nep-fmk and nep-for
Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 18
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://econwpa.ub.uni-muenchen.de/econ-wp/em/papers/0509/0509006.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wpa:wuwpem:0509006

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Econometrics from University Library of Munich, Germany
Bibliographic data for series maintained by EconWPA ().

 
Page updated 2024-04-19
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpem:0509006