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A Leading Indicators Approach to the Predictability of Currency

Bengi Kibritcioglu (), Bulent Kose and Gamze Ugur
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Bulent Kose: Undersecretariat of Treasury, Turkey
Gamze Ugur: Undersecretariat of Treasury, Turkey

International Finance from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: In this paper, we present a leading economic indicators approach to the predictability of currency crises in Turkey. After summarizing main theoretical models of currency crises and discussing the possible origins of financial crises in the European ERM countries (1992-93), Turkey (1994) and Southeast Asian countries (1997-98), we survey the empirical literature on the predictability of currency crises. Our leading economic indicators approach based on Burns and Mitchell (1946) shows that terms-of-trade, market-determined exchange rate over official exchange rate and some survey data can be considered as leading economic indicators of currency crises in Turkey.

Keywords: Leading economic indicators; predictability of currency crises; Turkey (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F31 E60 C22 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ifn
Date: 2001-09-06, Revised 2001-09-06
Note: Type of Document - PDF; prepared on IBM PC; to print on Any printer/A4 sized paper; pages: 27 ; figures: included
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