Can Fluctuations in the Consumption-Wealth Ratio Help to Predict Exchange Rates?

Jorge Selaive () and Vicente Tuesta

International Finance from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: It is well documented that macroeconomic fundamentals are little help in predicting changes in the nominal exchange rates compared to the predictions made by a simple random walk. Letta and Ludvigson (2001) find that fluctuations in the common long-term trend in consumption, asset wealth, and labor income (herby, consumption-wealth ratio)is a strong predictor of the excess returns. In this paper, we study the role of the consumption-wealth ratio in predicting the change in the nominal exchange rate of a large set of countries. We find evidence that fluctuations in the consumption-wealth ratio help to predict in-sample all the currencies. in terms of out-of-sample forecasts, our results suggest that the consumption-wealth ratio may play a significant role predicting the Canadian dollar at all horizons and at short-intermediate horizons for some currencies.

Keywords: Exchange Rates; Consumption-Wealth Ratio; PRedictability (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C52 F31 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 21 pages
Date: 2004-04-26
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ifn
Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 21
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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https://econwpa.ub.uni-muenchen.de/econ-wp/if/papers/0404/0404014.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Can fluctuations in the consumption-wealth ratio help to predict exchange rates? (2006)
Working Paper: Can Fluctuations in the Consumption-Wealth Ratio Help to Predict Exchange Rates? (2005)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wpa:wuwpif:0404014

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