THE EFFECTS OF EXCHANGE RATE VARIABILITY ON EXPORTS: EVIDENCE FROM UGANDA (1988 – 2001)

David Kihangire

International Trade from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: Using monthly data, this study investigates the effects of exchange rate variability on Uganda’s aggregate export growth under the floating exchange rate policy regime (1994-2001), benchmarked on the fixed exchange rate regime (1988-1993). The main research question it posits is: “What is the effect of exchange rate variability on Uganda’s exports?” Premised on risk-aversion, the study tests the main hypothesis that ‘Uganda’s exports are negatively and significantly correlated with exchange rate variability.’ Due to lack of pure I(0) or I(1) for all the series, and absence of endogeneity and simultaneous bias problems between export supply and export demand, the ARDL approach to cointegration and OLS are applied in the study. The results suggest support for the research hypothesis. The policy implication is that intervention targeting the minimisation of excessive volatility in the real effective exchange rate under the floating regime may contribute to supporting export sector growth, economic growth, and overall external macroeconomic stability in Uganda.

Keywords: Uganda; Exports; Exchange Rate Variability (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F1 F2 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 40 pages
Date: 2005-05-21
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ifn
Note: Type of Document - doc; pages: 40. The study was part of my Ph.D. research study at the University of Bradford.
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
https://econwpa.ub.uni-muenchen.de/econ-wp/it/papers/0505/0505013.pdf (application/pdf)
https://econwpa.ub.uni-muenchen.de/econ-wp/it/papers/0505/0505013.ps.gz (application/postscript)
https://econwpa.ub.uni-muenchen.de/econ-wp/it/papers/0505/0505013.doc.gz (application/msword)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wpa:wuwpit:0505013

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in International Trade from University Library of Munich, Germany
Bibliographic data for series maintained by EconWPA ( this e-mail address is bad, please contact ).