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Impact of U.S. Tariffs on Democratic Vote Share

Miaojie Yu ()

International Trade from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: This paper provides evidence on an amended Mayer-Heckscher-Ohlin model with parties by studying the effects of U.S. tariffs on the Democratic vote share. The effects are estimated with fixed effects and Two-Stage Least Squares based on data from the House of Representatives from the years 1982 to 2000. Weighted trade policy proxy for each congressional district are constructed and shown to be significant. Overall, a 10% decrease of weighted tariffs leads to a 12% decrease in the Democratic vote share in the election to the House, ceteris paribus. Also, the predictions of the model for electoral outcome are consistent with today’s U.S. politics.

Keywords: tariffs; Democratic vote share; campaign contributions; House election (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F13 F14 P16 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-pol
Date: 2005-11-03
Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 35
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