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Local Labor Markets and Cyclic Components in Demand for College Trained Manpower

James Smith () and Finis R. Welch
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Finis R. Welch: UCLA & RAND Corporation

Labor and Demography from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: In this paper we examine earnings of synthetic cohorts contained in the Current Population Surveys (CPS) for each year 1968 to 1975. The CPS data are useful to test for the importance of local labor markets because individuals can be assigned to markets by calendar year and area of residence. We find that contrary to the established conviction, wage rates are sensitive to business cycles. This sensitivity appears, holding industry constant, to be skill neutral so that business cycle movements aparently explain little of the recent time series behavior of relative wages of college graduates. Furthermore, we have identified some important movements in wage rates among areas. These wage differentials seem more sensitive to employment deviations and trends than we at least initially expected.

JEL-codes: J (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ure
Date: 2004-03-10
Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 31. Annales de l'Insee, Number 30-31, 1978
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