Inflation, Output, and Stabilization in a High Inflation Economy: Turkey, 1980-2000
Selahattin Dibooglu and
Aykut Kibritçioğlu ()
Macroeconomics from University Library of Munich, Germany
This paper surveys and examines the sources of fluctuations in inflation and output in Turkey. Using a dynamic open economy aggregate supply - aggregate demand model with imperfect capital mobility and structural vector-autoregressions, the authors consider real oil price, supply, balance of payments, real demand, and monetary disturbances. Empirical results indicate that inflation is driven by monetary and real demand disturbances while output is mainly driven by aggregate supply disturbances. The historical decomposition shows that a substantial portion of inflation is aggregate demand-driven core inflation. A credible disinflation program accompanied by structural reform is likely to stabilize the economy with little output costs.
Keywords: Stabilization Policy - Turkey; Inflation- Causes and Effects; Inflation Theories; Turkey- Macroeconomic Developments; Macroeconomics - Theory of Aggregate Supply and Aggregate Demand; Time Series Models (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E31 E23 F41 C32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eec
Date: 2001-07-25, Revised 2001-07-26
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations View citations in EconPapers (2) Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0107003
Access Statistics for this paper
More papers in Macroeconomics from University Library of Munich, Germany
Bibliographic data for series maintained by EconWPA ().