Structural testing of Business Cycles

Esa Mangeloja ()

Macroeconomics from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: In this article, the predictability performance of certain classical business cycle theories are tested against contemporary statistical methods by using Finnish macroeconomic data. Keynesian multiplier- accelerator model derivatives and neo-classical real business cycle models are compared to statistical stochastic time-series methods. Some philosophical considerations on the scientific principles and macroeconomic analysis are extended for applied econometric practice. VAR and SUTSE models are estimated and compared against classical theory implications. It is found that in this case, SUTSE model has a superior forecasting ability and that pure statistical algorithms are the most efficient alternatives for predicting Finnish business cycle data.

Keywords: Business Cycle; Real Business Cycle Theory; VAR; SUTSE; multiplier-acceleration (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 20 pages
Date: 2003-08-19
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dge, nep-fin and nep-mac
Note: Type of Document - pdf; prepared on PC- LaTex; pages: 20 ; figures: included
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0308004

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