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An Econometric Macro-model of Transition: Policy Choices in the Pre-Accession Period

Ray Barrell, Dawn Holland (), Nigel Pain (), Mihaly Andras Kovacs, Zoltán Jakab (), Katerina Smidkova, Urmas Sepp and Uros Cufer
Additional contact information
Ray Barrell: NIESR
Mihaly Andras Kovacs: National Bank of Hungary
Urmas Sepp: Bank of Estonia
Uros Cufer: Bank of Slovenia

Macroeconomics from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: This paper analyses current policy choices facing the candidate countries for EU accession using newly developed econometric macromodels of Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Slovenia and Estonia. The models allow for endogenous growth, and they have been incorporated into an existing global econometric model (NiGEM). This allows long-term projections to be made consistently with expected developments in other economies and allows full feedbacks with the rest of the world so that we can understand impacts on existing EU members as well as the candidate countries. This paper has several novel features, in that we use modern panel data techniques on short time series data in order to construct models of a number of economies. In constructing the models, we have taken special care to consider the roles of openness and foreign investment on productivity and growth. Different policies toward growth and the enhancement of technology transfer are analysed using the models, and policy advice on the accession and integration are made.

Keywords: accession.; macro-model.; panel; data.; transition. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 34 pages
Date: 2004-03-02
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac and nep-tra
Note: Type of Document - ; pages: 34. The paper was published in Proceedings from the AMFET'2001 Conference - Modelling Economies in Transition, Lodz.
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