Estimating and Projecting Potential Output Using Structural VAR Methodology
Alain Guay and
Pierre St-Amant ()
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Alain de Serres ()
Macroeconomics from University Library of Munich, Germany
In this paper the authors show how potential output can be estimated and projected through an approach derived from the structural vector autoregression methodology. This approach is applied to the Mexican economy. To identify demand, supply and world oil shocks, the authors assume that demand shocks do not have a permanent effect on output and that the international price of oil is exogenous to the Mexican economy in the long term. They then calculate potential output by adding the world oil and supply components to the drift in output. They find that world oil shocks have been an important source of both actual and potential output fluctuations over a sample period extending from 1965 to 1994. However, they also find occurrences of important gaps between actual and potential output.
JEL-codes: E (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 24 pages
Note: 24 printed pages, compressed PostScript file. Other recent Bank of Canada working papers are listed on the last page of this report. Bank of Canada
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (18) Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:9504003
Access Statistics for this paper
More papers in Macroeconomics from University Library of Munich, Germany
Bibliographic data for series maintained by EconWPA ().