Economics at your fingertips  

The Long-run Impact of Different Exchange Rates on the Projected Agricultural Income of an Export Dependent Region of the UK

Joan Moss, Seamus McErlean (), Ziping Wu, Andrew Doherty and Jos IJpelaar
Additional contact information
Joan Moss: Queen's University Belfast
Andrew Doherty: LMC, Northern Ireland
Jos IJpelaar: University of Reading

Others from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: This paper evaluates the effects of different exchange rate scenarios on projections for agricultural incomes and prices in a small highly export dependent region, NI. The modelling system used in the analysis is designed to capture the complexities of the relationship between exchange rates and agricultural prices and incomes. The system models not only the main agricultural sectors in NI but also the demand for and supply of agricultural commodities in the EU and beyond. This is important, given that NI is a price taker and the EU is the main export destination for its agricultural production. The analysis serves to underline the importance of exchange rates for the NI agricultural economy. When the euro is weak against sterling then agricultural sector incomes are substantially lower than when the euro is strong against sterling. Approximately, a one per cent weakening/strengthening of the euro against sterling is projected to reduce/increase aggregate net receipts in the dairy, beef and sheep sectors by one per cent. This means that exchange rate movements, which are outside the control of the agricultural community, have a dramatic affect on agricultural incomes in NI. This conclusion should be considered against the backdrop of a 28% drop (approx.) in the value of the euro against the pound that has occurred since 1995. The impact of exchange rate movements on producer prices appears to be less pronounced.

JEL-codes: P Q Z (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 19 pages
Date: 2004-09-07
Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 19
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link) (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link:

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Others from University Library of Munich, Germany
Bibliographic data for series maintained by EconWPA ().

Page updated 2021-01-26
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpot:0409003