Accuracy of Regional Single-Family Housing Start Forecasts
Thomas Fullerton (),
Juan Alberto Luevano and
Carol Taylor West
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Juan Alberto Luevano: University of Texas at El Paso
Carol Taylor West: University of Florida
Urban/Regional from University Library of Munich, Germany
Regional single-family housing start forecasts are used in numerous banking, government, public utility, and retail applications. Despite that, they have not been systematically examined for predictive accuracy. This article analyzes quarterly single-family housing start forecasts for Florida and its six largest metropolitan economies. The sample period covers 1985:1 through 1996:2 and includes a complete business cycle. In contrast to regional employment, the econometric housing activity forecasts do not fare well against univariate ARIMA and random walk benchmarks.
Keywords: Regional; housing; start; forecasts (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: R (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-geo and nep-ure
Note: Type of Document - doc; pages: 17
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wpa:wuwpur:0404010
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