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Accuracy of Regional Single-Family Housing Start Forecasts

Thomas Fullerton (), Juan Alberto Luevano and Carol Taylor West
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Juan Alberto Luevano: University of Texas at El Paso
Carol Taylor West: University of Florida

Urban/Regional from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: Regional single-family housing start forecasts are used in numerous banking, government, public utility, and retail applications. Despite that, they have not been systematically examined for predictive accuracy. This article analyzes quarterly single-family housing start forecasts for Florida and its six largest metropolitan economies. The sample period covers 1985:1 through 1996:2 and includes a complete business cycle. In contrast to regional employment, the econometric housing activity forecasts do not fare well against univariate ARIMA and random walk benchmarks.

Keywords: Regional; housing; start; forecasts (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: R (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-geo and nep-ure
Date: 2004-04-23
Note: Type of Document - doc; pages: 17
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Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpur:0404010