Tariffs and Politics: Evidence from Trump’s Trade Wars
Thiemo Fetzer and
The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) from University of Warwick, Department of Economics
We use the recent trade escalation between the US and its trade partners to study whether retaliatory tariffs are politically targeted. We find comprehensive evidence using individual- and aggregate voting data suggesting that retaliation is carefully targeted to hurt Trump. We develop a simulation approach to construct counterfactual retaliation responses allowing us to both quantify the extent of political targeting, while also studying potential tradeoffs. China, appears to put a large weight on achieving maximal political targeting. The EU seems successful in maximizing political targeting, while at the same time minimizing the potential damage to its economy.
Keywords: trade war; tariff; targeting; political economy; elections; populism (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D72 F13 F14 F16 F55 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cna, nep-int, nep-pke and nep-pol
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https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/research/w ... werp_1227_fetzer.pdf
Journal Article: Tariffs and Politics: Evidence from Trump’s Trade Wars (2021)
Working Paper: Tariffs and politics: evidence from Trump's trade wars (2019)
Working Paper: Tariffs and Politics: Evidence from Trump's Trade Wars (2019)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wrk:warwec:1227
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