Measuring the Epidemiological Impact of a False Negative: Evidence from a Natural Experiment

Thiemo Fetzer

The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) from University of Warwick, Department of Economics

Abstract: Reliable COVID-19 testing remains a central pillar to manage the pandemic. Yet, the accuracy and reliability of tests and test equipment has regularly been brought into question. Both false-positive and false-negative test results convey costs. Yet, false negatives are likely more problematic due to the risk of onward transmission and the failure to break infection chains as a result. This paper studies the epidemiological impact of a false negative in the context of a high vaccine uptake country. Between 2 September and 12 October an estimated 43,000 PCR tests in the UK may have produced a false negative test result with individuals infected being told that they tested negative. These instances were particularly pronounced in the South West of England. Using a synthetic control method approach concentrating on the 13 most affected regions, this paper estimates that every false negative COVID-19 case is likely to have caused between 0.6 to 1.6 additional infections in the subsequent weeks

Keywords: False Negative; Natural Experiment; Test Error; Health; Coronavirus JEL Classification: I31; Z18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-hea
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https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/research/w ... rp_1386_-_fetzer.pdf

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Working Paper: Measuring the Epidemiological Impact of a False Negative: Evidence from a Natural Experiment (2021)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wrk:warwec:1386

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