Synthetic Decomposition for Counterfactual Predictions

Nathan Canen and Kyungchul Song
Additional contact information
Kyungchul Song: University of British Columbia

The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) from University of Warwick, Department of Economics

Abstract: Counterfactual predictions are challenging when the policy variable goes beyond its pre-policy support. However, in many cases, information about the policy of interest is available from different (“source”) regions where a similar policy has already been implemented. In this paper, we propose a novel method of using such data from source regions to predict a new policy in a target region. Instead of relying on extrapolation of a structural relationship using a parametric specification, we formulate a transferability condition and construct a synthetic outcome-policy relationship such that it is as close as possible to meeting the condition. The synthetic relationship weighs both the similarity in distributions of observables and in structural relationships. We develop a general procedure to construct asymptotic confidence intervals for counterfactual predictions and prove its asymptotic validity. We then apply our proposal to predict average teenage employment in Texas following a counterfactual increase in the minimum wage.

Keywords: Counterfactual Predictions; Decomposition Analysis; Ex Ante Policy Evaluation; Synthetic Decomposition; Uniform Asymptotic Validity JEL codes: C30; C54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/research/w ... erp_1466_-_canen.pdf

Related works:
Working Paper: Synthetic Decomposition for Counterfactual Predictions (2025)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wrk:warwec:1466

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) from University of Warwick, Department of Economics Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Margaret Nash ().