Political Influence Through Microtargeting

Michael Eldar and Sinem Hidir
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Michael Eldar: Nuffield College, University of Oxford
Sinem Hidir: University of Warwick

The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) from University of Warwick, Department of Economics

Abstract: We model the way in which political microtargeting induces voters to learn about their own preferences. This differs from past literature on political influence which focuses on bias. We find that the optimal strategy based on previously estimated parameters is to target groups of voters favoring one’s opponents. More generally, log-concave cost of voting distributions can give rise to non-convex sets being targeted : weak supporters of the politician and strong supporters of the opponent. Further, we provide a novel analysis of the effects of micro-targeting on turnout. We find a sense in which lower costs of voting encourage negative campaigning.

Keywords: Microtargeting; Negative Campaigning; Mobilisation; Demobilisation; Political Economy; Social Media; Political Influence (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wrk:warwec:1592

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