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Evaluating the Rationality of Fixed-Event Forecasts

Michael Clements

The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) from University of Warwick, Department of Economics

Abstract: A Test of forecasts rationality based on the weak efficiency of fixed-event forecasts has recently been proposed by Nordhauss (1987). This paper considers the scope for pooling fixed-event forecasts across 'events' to deliver more powerful tests of the weak-efficiency hypothesis. In an empirial illustration we demonstrate the usefulness of this approach when only a small number of forecasts are available.

Keywords: FORECASTS; POOLING; TESTS (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C52 C59 C50 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1996
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https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/research/w ... 95-1998/twerp457.pdf

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Working Paper: Evaluating the rationality of fixed-event forecasts (1996) Downloads
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