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Uncertainty and disagreement in economic prediction: the Bank of England Survey of External Forecasters

Gianna Boero (), Jeremy Smith and Kenneth Wallis ()

The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) from University of Warwick, Department of Economics

Abstract: This article introduces a new source of survey data, namely the Bank of England Survey of External Forecasters. The survey collects point and density forecasts of inflation and GDP growth, and hence offers the opportunity of constructing direct measures of uncertainty. We present a simple statistical framework in which to define and interrelate measures of uncertainty and disagreement. The resulting measures are compared with other direct measures of uncertainty, nationally and internationally. A significant, sustained reduction in inflation uncertainty followed the 1997 granting of operational independence to the Bank of England to pursue a monetary policy of inflation targeting.

Keywords: Forecast surveys; point forecasts; density forecasts; uncertainty; disagreement (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C42 C53 E3 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2006
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Related works:
Journal Article: Uncertainty and Disagreement in Economic Prediction: The Bank of England Survey of External Forecasters (2008) Downloads
Working Paper: Uncertainty and disagreement in economic prediction: the Bank of England Survey of External Forecasters (2006) Downloads
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