Do Political Actors Engage in Strategic Deception on Social Media?

Faviana Bosco de Sousa
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Faviana Bosco de Sousa: Monash University

Warwick-Monash Economics Student Papers from Warwick Monash Economics Student Papers

Abstract: This paper evaluates the performance of the Denton method in estimating quarterly GDP using indicators [QGDPi(E)] and explores alternative indicators for GDP components that have big errors. This report uses Timor-Leste quarterly data on GDP expenditure and its components from 2010 to 2019 sourced from GDS (Statistical office of Timor-Leste). The QGDPi(E) is temporally disaggregated through the Denton method, and the results will be evaluated in two ways. Firstly, I compare the Denton results to the Cholette-Dagum results. Secondly, I compare the Denton findings to the published (adjusted) quarterly GDP series. Overall, results show that the Cholette-Dagum approach disaggregates the GDP better than the Denton method, based on the mean absolute error estimation. However, the estimation error of GDP and its components for every quarter are similar for both methods. Therefore, it is concluded that the performance of both procedures is very similar. This result could be used as a guide to disaggregating annual GDP into quarterly series using both approaches, which would be beneficial for Timor-Leste. Finally, this study suggests that GDS continues to use the Denton method in the short term. However, it recommends using a more transparent time series regression-based model to estimate quarterly GDP for a better result in the future.

Keywords: GDP; Proportional Denton Method; Cholette-Dagum Method JEL Classification: C22; C61; C82 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac
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