Enhancing load, wind and solar generation forecasts in day-ahead forecasting of spot and intraday electricity prices

Katarzyna Maciejowska (), Weronika Nitka and Tomasz Weron

No HSC/19/08, HSC Research Reports from Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology

Abstract: In recent years, a rapid development of renewable energy sources (RES) has been observed across the world. Intermittent energy sources, which depend strongly on weather conditions, induce additional uncertainty to the system and impact the level and variability of electricity prices. Predictions of RES, together with the level of demand, have been recognized as one of the most important determinants of future electricity prices. In this research, it is shown that forecasts of these fundamental variables, which are published by Transmission System Operators (TSO), are biased and could be improved with simple regression models. Enhanced predictions are next used for forecasting of spot and intraday prices in Germany. The results indicate that improving the forecasts of fundamentals does not bring any gains in case of the spot market, but leads to more accurate predictions of intraday prices. Finally, it is demonstrated that utilization of enhanced forecasts is helpful in a day-ahead choice of a market (spot or intraday) and results in a substantial increase of profits.

Keywords: Renewables; Electricity prices; Day-ahead market; Intraday market; Forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C51 C52 C53 G11 Q41 Q47 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 18 pages
Date: 2019-12-10
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ene, nep-for and nep-reg
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.im.pwr.wroc.pl/~hugo/RePEc/wuu/wpaper/HSC_19_08.pdf Original version, 2019 (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wuu:wpaper:hsc1908

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in HSC Research Reports from Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Rafal Weron ().