中国货币政策规则的估计与比较 ——基于DSGE模型的分析

岳超云 and 牛霖琳

No 2013-12-05, Working Papers from Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE), Xiamen University

Abstract: 本文在DSGE模型框架下用贝叶斯方法对中国货币政策的利率规则和数量规则进行了估计，并比较了不同货币规则模型对数据的解释和预测能力，提供了货币规则随中国货币政策调控机制改革演化的证据。本文发现数量规则比利率规则在整体上更能解释中国的货币政策，但是利率规则的解释能力随着利率市场化改革的深入而逐渐提高，此外在利率规则中加入货币因素能显著提高模型对数据的解释和预测能力。

Keywords: 货币政策规则; DSGE; 贝叶斯方法 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013-12-05
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