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Traffic forecasts under uncertainty and capacity constraints

Anna Matas, Josep Raymond () and Adriana Ruiz
Additional contact information
Adriana Ruiz: GEAP, Dpt. Economia Aplicada. Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona

No XREAP2009-12, Working Papers from Xarxa de Referència en Economia Aplicada (XREAP)

Abstract: Traffic forecasts provide essential input for the appraisal of transport investment projects. However, according to recent empirical evidence, long-term predictions are subject to high levels of uncertainty. This paper quantifies uncertainty in traffic forecasts for the tolled motorway network in Spain. Uncertainty is quantified in the form of a confidence interval for the traffic forecast that includes both model uncertainty and input uncertainty. We apply a stochastic simulation process based on bootstrapping techniques. Furthermore, the paper proposes a new methodology to account for capacity constraints in long-term traffic forecasts. Specifically, we suggest a dynamic model in which the speed of adjustment is related to the ratio between the actual traffic flow and the maximum capacity of the motorway. This methodology is applied to a specific public policy that consists of suppressing the toll on a certain motorway section before the concession expires.

Pages: 33 pages
Date: 2009-11, Revised 2009-11
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-for, nep-ppm and nep-ure
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http://www.xreap.cat/RePEc/xrp/pdf/XREAP2009-12.pdf First version, 2009 (application/pdf)
http://www.xreap.cat/RePEc/xrp/pdf/XREAP2009-12.pdf Revised version, 2009 (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Traffic forecasts under uncertainty and capacity constraints (2012) Downloads
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