Explaining and Predicting Routinized Decision Making: A Review of Theories

Tilmann Betsch (), Susanne Haberstroh () and Connie Höhle ()
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Tilmann Betsch: Universität Heidelberg/ Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Postal: Hauptstr. 47-51, 69117 Heidelberg
Susanne Haberstroh: Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Postal: L 13, 15, D-68131 Mannheim
Connie Höhle: Universität Heidelberg, Postal: Hauptstr. 47-51, 69117 Heidelberg

No 00-17, Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications from Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim

Abstract: We review theories of preferential decision making and apply them to explain and predict choices in experienced individuals. Specifically, we focus on decision problems for which the actor already has a potential solution or decision routine available. We start with a brief overview of research evidencing the manifold ways in which such routines can influence the decision process. Then we develop a classification of decision theories and examine their explanatory power, that is the extent to which they can give post-hoc explanations for routine effects. Finally, we narrow the analysis down to those theories which explicitly address routinized decision making and examine to what extent they are able to make a priori predictions of routinized decision making. The review reveals that the arsenal of theories as a whole possesses a high potential to derive post hoc explanations of routine effects with the help of some auxiliary assumptions. Albeit, there are only a few decision theories incorporating explicit premises on the influence of routines on choice. Examination of their predictive power reveals that we currently are not able to precisely predict information search, evaluation and context influences on choice in routinized decision making. The implications of this shortcoming and directions of future theoretical development are discussed.

Pages: 62 pages
Date: 2000-05-04
Note: Financial support from the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft, SFB 504, at the University of Mannheim, is gratefully acknowledged.
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