The Role of Lay Theories of Affect Progressions in Affective Forecasting

Eric Igou
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Eric Igou: Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Postal: L 13, 15, D-68131 Mannheim

No 02-39, Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications from Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim

Abstract: Numerous studies demonstrate that individuals are inaccurate in estimating the duration of affective states resulting from events, for instance after success or failure. This tendency often has an impact on decisions that fail to maximize experience utility (Kahneman & Snell, 1990). It is assumed that lay theories about the progression of affect over time influence the estimated duration of affective reactions to events. Specifically, a lay theory of affect reduction leads to a shorter estimated duration than a lay theory of affect continuity. Three studies demonstrate that such accessible lay theories have an impact on the estimated duration of affect when the theories were activated either directly (Study 1) or more subtly (Studies 2 and 3). In addition it can be shown that the impact of these theories are more pronounced under high elaboration conditions (Study 3). The conditions for the impact of lay theories of affect progressions and the implications for the inaccuracy of affective forecasts are discussed.

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Date: 2002-04-22
Note: This research was supported by a grant from the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft within the SFB 504, at the University of Mannheim. Correspondence should be addressed to Eric R. Igou, GF-Psychology Department, New School University, 65 Fifth Avenue, New York, New York 10003, U.S.A., Email: IgouE@newschool.edu
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