The Ultimate Sampling Dilemma in Experience-Based Decision Making

Klaus Fiedler ()
Additional contact information
Klaus Fiedler: Sonderforschungsbereich 504/ Universität Heidelberg, Postal: Hauptstraße 47-51, 69117 Heidelberg

No 07-51, Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications from Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim

Abstract: Computer simulations and two experiments are reported to delineate the ultimate sampling dilemma, which constitutes a serious obstacle to inductive inferences in a probabilistic world. Participants were asked to take the role of a manager who is to make purchasing decisions based on positive versus negative feedback about three providers in two different product domains. When information sampling (from a computerized data base) was over, they had to make inferences about actual differences in the data base from which the sample was drawn (e.g., about the actual superiority of different providers, or about the most likely origins of negatively valenced products). The ultimate sampling dilemma consists in a forced choice between two search strategies that both have their advantages and their drawbacks: natural sampling and deliberate sampling of information relevant to the inference task. Both strategies leave the sample unbiased for specific inferences but create errors or biases for other inferences.

Pages: 54 pages
Date: 2007-07-10
Note: The present research was supported by various grants from the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft. Thanks to Ralph Hertwig, Ulrich Hoffrage, Tobias Vogel, Peter Freytag, and Yaakov Kareev for their helpful and constructive comments on a draft of this article. Correspondence should be addressed to Klaus Fiedler, Psychologisches Institut, Universität Heidelberg, Hauptstrasse 47-51, 69117 Heidelberg, Germany.
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sfb504.uni-mannheim.de/publications/dp07-51.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:xrs:sfbmaa:07-51

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications from Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim Contact information at EDIRC., Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Carsten Schmidt ( this e-mail address is bad, please contact ).