Base-rate neglect based on base-rates in experience-based contingency learning

Florian Kutzner (), Peter Freytag, Tobias Vogel and Klaus Fiedler ()
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Florian Kutzner: Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Postal: Hauptstraße 47-51
Peter Freytag: Universität Heidelberg, Postal: Hauptstraße 47-51
Tobias Vogel: Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Postal: Hauptstraße 47-51
Klaus Fiedler: Sonderforschungsbereich 504/ Universität Heidelberg, Postal: Hauptstraße 47-51, 69117 Heidelberg

No 07-53, Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications from Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim

Abstract: Predicting criterion events based on probabilistic predictor events, humans often lend excessive weight to predictor event information and insufficient weight to criterion event base-rates. Using the matching-to-sample paradigm established in studies on experience-based contingency learning in animals, Goodie and Fantino (1996) showed that human judges exhibit base-rate neglect when sample cues are associated with response options through similarity relations. In conceptual replications of these studies, we demonstrated similar effects when sample cues resemble the response options in terms of base-rates skewed in the same direction rather than physical similarity. In line with the pseudocontingency illusion (Fiedler & Freytag, 2004), predictions were biased toward the more (less) frequently rewarded response option following the more (less) frequently presented sample cue. Thus, what is a demonstration of base-rate neglect from one perspective turns out to reflect the judges' sensitivity to the alignment of skewed base-rate distributions.

Pages: 16 pages
Date: 2007-07-10
Note: The research underlying the present paper was supported by a grant from the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) awarded to the second and last authors. Correspondence concerning this paper should be addressed to Florian Kutzner, Department of Psychology, University of Heidelberg, Hauptstrasse 47-51, 69117 Heidelberg, Germany, Phone +49-6221-547366, Fax +49-6221-547745, Email: florian.kutzner@psychologie.uni-heidelberg.de
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