Pseudocontingencies: An Integrative Account of an Intriguing Cognitive Illusion

Klaus Fiedler (), Peter Freytag and Thorsten Meiser
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Klaus Fiedler: Sonderforschungsbereich 504/ Universität Heidelberg, Postal: Hauptstraße 47-51, 69117 Heidelberg
Peter Freytag: Universität Heidelberg, Postal: Hauptstraße 47-51
Thorsten Meiser: Universität Marburg

No 08-36, Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications from Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim

Abstract: The term pseudocontingency (PC) denotes the logically unwarranted inference of a contingency between two variables X and Y from information other than pairs of xi, yi observations, namely, the variables’ univariate baserates as assessed in one or more ecological contexts. We summarize recent experimental evidence, showing that PCs can play a pivotal role in many areas of judgment and decision making. We argue that the exploitation of the informational value of baserates underlying PCs offers an alternative perspective on many phenomena in the realm of adaptive cognition that have been studied in isolation so far. Although PCs can lead to serious biases under some conditions, they afford an efficient strategy for inductive inference making in probabilistic environments that render baserate information, rather than genuine covariation information, readily available.

Pages: 70 pages
Date: 2009-01-09
Note: Authors’ Note. Klaus Fiedler and Peter Freytag, University of Heidelberg, Department of Psychology, Hauptstrasse 47, D-69117 Heidelberg, Germany. Thorsten Meiser, University of Marburg, Department of Psychology, Gutenbergstrasse 18, D-35032 Marburg, Germany. The present research was supported by several grants of the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft to all three authors. Insightful comments by Jürgen Baumert, Nick Chater, Robyn Dawes, Yaakov Kareev, Joachim Krueger, Florian Kutzner, and Tobias Vogel are gratefully acknowledged. Correspondence concerning this manuscript should be addressed via email to: kf@psychologie.uni-heidelberg.de.
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