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Zur Anhebung der Altersgrenzen: Eine Simulation der langfristigen Auswirkungen auf die gesetzliche Rentenversicherung bei unterschiedlichem Renteneintrittsverhalten

Tabea Bucher-Koenen () and Christina Wilke ()
Additional contact information
Tabea Bucher-Koenen: MEA, Postal: L 13, 17, D-68131 Mannheim
Christina Wilke: MEA, Postal: L 13, 15, D-68131 Mannheim

No 08-44, Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications from Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim

Abstract: In spring 2007 the German government increased the statutory retirement age from 65 to 67. We simulate the long-term impact of this measure on the budget of the German public pension system. In contrast to previous simulations our results are based on a model that explicitly accounts for feedback effects between the development of the work force, individual retirement decisions and the evolution of the retired population in a consistent manner. Overall, increasing the statutory retirement age results in a slower rise of the contribution rate from 2013 onwards, and, from 2014 on the decline of the benefit levels is slowed. Furthermore, we find that allowing for different individual reactions only has a moderate impact on the development of the German public pension system due to the stabilizing effects of early retirement deductions. On the level of individuals, retirement income from the public pension system can be improved substantially by retiring later.

Pages: 37 pages
Date: 2008-07-01
Note: Wir danken Axel Börsch-Supan, Anette Reil-Held und Ulrich Schlieper für wertvolle Unterstützung und Diskussionen, sowie Kalamkas Kaldybajewa von der Deutschen Rentenversicherung und dem Forschungsdatenzentrum, insbesondere Ralf Himmelreicher, für ihre Hilfe. Weiterhin bedanken wir uns bei Konrad Harker vom Bundesministerium für Arbeit und Soziales und Johannes Clemens von der deutschen Bundesbank für hilfreiche Kommentare. Unser Dank gilt auch den Förderern des MEA für die Unterstützung bei der Erstellung dieses Beitrags, vor allem dem Land Baden-Württemberg, der Deutschen Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) und dem Gesamtverband der Deutschen Versicherungs-wirtschaft (GDV).
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