Hindsight bias: Impaired memory or biased reconstruction?

Dagmar Stahlberg () and A. Maass
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Dagmar Stahlberg: Lehrstuhl fuer Sozialpsychologie, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Postal: Seminargebaeude A5, D-68131 Mannheim
A. Maass: Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Postal: L 13, 15, D-68131 Mannheim

No 97-27, Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications from Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim

Abstract: The hindsight bias is the tendency for people to believe falsely that they would have predicted the outcome of an event, once the outcome is known. Although there is a rich literature on hindsight distortions, the underlying mechanisms are not yet fully understood. The present paper addresses the question whether hindsight distiortions represent the result of memory impairment or biased reconstruction processes. The majority of studies presented support the biased reconstruction view. Nevertheless, memory impairment processes cannot be ruled out as an explanation of hindsight bias when certain conditions are met, such as an existing coherent knowledge structure.

Pages: 55 pages
Date: 1996-08-05
Note: Financial support from the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft, SFB 504, at the University of Mannheim, is gratefully acknowledged.
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