Natural sampling and base-rate neglect

Tilmann Betsch (), G. - M. Biel, C. Eddelbuettel and A. Mock
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Tilmann Betsch: Universität Heidelberg/ Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Postal: Hauptstr. 47-51, 69117 Heidelberg
G. - M. Biel: University of Heidelberg, Postal: Psychologisches Institut, Hauptstr. 47-51, 69117 Heidelberg
C. Eddelbuettel: University of Heidelberg, Postal: Psychologisches Institut, Hauptstr. 47-51, 69117 Heidelberg
A. Mock: University of Heidelberg, Postal: Psychologisches Institut

No 98-05, Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications from Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim

Abstract: Using an analogue of the lawyer-and-engineer item (Kahneman & Tversky, 1973), we compared conditions in which base-rates were either presented as percentages (A), or frequencies (B), to conditions in which the natural sampling process was described additionally (C) or was directly experienced (D). We expected the likelihood of base-rate utilization to increase as the presentation approaches the process of natural sampling. Accordingly, results showed that the contingency of judgments on base-rates systematically increased across conditions A to D.

Pages: 0 pages
Date: 1997-07-16
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ecm and nep-exp
Note: Financial support from the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft, SFB 504, at the University of Mannheim, is gratefully acknowledged.
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