Hindsight Bias: A Price Worth Paying for Fast and Frugal Memory

Ulrich Hoffrage () and Ralph Hertwig
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Ulrich Hoffrage: Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Postal: L 13, 15, D-68131 Mannheim
Ralph Hertwig: MPI for Human Development, Postal: Lentzeallee 94, 14195 Berlin

No 99-22, Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications from Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim

Abstract: Remembering past events is not merely retrieving them from storage like books from a library. Memories can be lost or distorted, and memories for events that never even happened can be induced.... Other chapters in this book deal with constraints of limited time and knowledge; in this chapter we focus on the constraints imposed by the limited capacity of human memory. How can memory work given its limitations? Our answer is, by reconstruction. ... Reconstruction, however, has its price. We focus on one, the well-known hindsight bias, and propose a computational model for this effect based on a fast and frugal heuristic. Hindsight bias has often been regarded as just another error of human information processing. We argue, instead, and provide empirical evidence that it is a by-product of two generally adaptive processes: first, updating knowledge after receiving new information; and second, drawing fast and frugal inferences from this updated knowledge.

Pages: 27 pages
Date: 1998-07-09
Note: Financial Support from the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft, SFB 504, at the University of Mannheim, is gratefully acknowledged.
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