Representations of uncertainty and change: Three case studies with experts
Elke Kurz (),
Gerd Gigerenzer () and
Ulrich Hoffrage ()
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Elke Kurz: MPI for Human Development, Postal: Lentzeallee 94, 14195 Berlin
Gerd Gigerenzer: MPI for Human Development, Berlin, Postal: Lentzeallee 94, 14195 Berlin
Ulrich Hoffrage: Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Postal: L 13, 15, D-68131 Mannheim
No 99-24, Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications from Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim
[from the conclusion section:] In this chapter, we have argued (i) that the calculi of uncertainty and change provide multiple representations, which bridge the past and present, (ii) that the choice of representation is already part of the solution of the problem, and (iii) that learning to choose an appropriate representation can help experts to understand uncertainty and change, and to communicate successfully with their clients and students on such topics as how to assess risk. As the studies with AIDS counselors and physicians dramatically demonstrated, the training of experts does not always include learning to choose a suitable representation.
Pages: 34 pages
Note: Financial Support from the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft, SFB 504, at the University of Mannheim, is gratefully acknowledged.
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