Shaping Soft Drinks: Sugar Taxes, Consumption, and Reformulation in Europe

Di Novi; C.; and Salari; P.;

Health, Econometrics and Data Group (HEDG) Working Papers from HEDG, c/o Department of Economics, University of York

Abstract: Sugar-sweetened beverages are a major source of free sugars in Western diets. In response, several European countries have introduced taxes to encourage product reformulation and reduce consumption. This study assesses how these taxes affected sales in off-trade and on-trade markets, examines consumers’ potential substitution effects using Euromonitor data (2004–2019), and evaluates manufacturers’ reformulation responses through Mintel product -launch data (2010–2019). We focus on six countries that implemented such taxes, specifically Belgium, France, Hungary, Ireland, Portugal, and the United Kingdom , and additionally analyse Denmark, which introduced a similar tax earlier and repealed it in 2014, providing a reverse test case. Using a synthetic control approach, we construct counterfactual scenarios to estimate tax impacts. We find significant sales effects only under progressive tax designs, while reformulation emerged consistently, particularly where sugar thresholds and implementation timelines were clearly defined.

Keywords: sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs); unhealthy diets; excise taxes; fiscal policy; consumption patterns; food industry; reformulation; synthetic control method; public health (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: H2 H3 I12 I18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-05
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:yor:hectdg:26/07

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