The Explanatory and Predictive Power of Non Two-Stage-Probability Theories of Decision Making Under Ambiguity

John Hey and Noemi Pace

Discussion Papers from Department of Economics, University of York

Abstract: Representing ambiguity in the laboratory using a Bingo Blower (which is transparent and not manipulable) and asking the subjects a series of allocation questions (which are more efficient than pairwise choice questions), we obtain data from which we can estimate by maximum likelihood methods (with explicit assumptions about the errors made by the subjects) a signicant subset of the empirically relevant models of behaviour under ambiguity, and compare their relative explanatory and predictive abilities. Our results suggest that not all recent models of behaviour represent a major improvement in explanatory and predictive power, particularly the more theoretically sophisticated ones.

Keywords: Alpha Model; Ambiguity; Bingo Blower; Choquet Expected Utility; Contraction Model; Rank Dependent Expected Utility; Subjec tive Expected Utility; Vector Expected Utility. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C91 D81 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (21)

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Related works:
Chapter: The explanatory and predictive power of non two-stage-probability theories of decision making under ambiguity (2018)
Journal Article: The explanatory and predictive power of non two-stage-probability theories of decision making under ambiguity (2014)
Working Paper: The Explanatory and Predictive Power of Non Two-Stage-Probability Theories of Decision Making Under Ambiguity (2011)
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