A Bayesian Decision-Theoretic Model of Sequential Experimentation with Delayed Response

Stephen Chick, Martin Forster and Paolo Pertile

Discussion Papers from Department of Economics, University of York

Abstract: We solve a Bayesian decision-theoretic model of a sequential experiment in which the real-valued primary end point is observed with delay. The solution yields a unified policy defining the optimal 'do notexperiment'/'fixed sample size experiment'/'sequential experiment' regions as a function of the prior mean. The model can value the expected benefits accruing to study units, the fixed costs of switching from control to treatment, and allows the number of study units to benefit from a stopping decision to fall as the number of study units recruited to the experiment rises. We apply the model to the field of medical statistics, using data from a published trial investigating the clinical- and cost-effectiveness of drug-eluting stents versus bare metal stents. We demonstrate the model’s superiority over alternative trial designs when judged according to the maximisation of the net benefits of the trial, minus sampling costs, and we investigate how the size of the delay determines the optimal choice of trial design. The optimal policy also performs well when judged according to the probability of making the correct selection of health technology.

Keywords: Bayesian Inference; Clinical Trials; Delayed Observations; Sequential Experimentation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C11 C53 C61 I10 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015-06
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ore
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.york.ac.uk/media/economics/documents/discussionpapers/2015/1509.pdf Main text (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: A Bayesian decision theoretic model of sequential experimentation with delayed response (2017)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:yor:yorken:15/09

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Discussion Papers from Department of Economics, University of York Department of Economics and Related Studies, University of York, York, YO10 5DD, United Kingdom. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Paul Hodgson ().