EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

Modeling the Covid-19 Epidemic Using Time Series Econometrics

Adam Golinski and Peter Spencer ()

Discussion Papers from Department of Economics, University of York

Abstract: The classic "logistic" model has provided a realistic model of the behavior of Covid-19 in China and many East Asian countries. Once these countries passed the peak, the daily case count fell back, mirroring its initial climb in a symmetric way, just as the classic model predicts. However, in Italy and Spain, and now the UK and many other Western countries, the experience has been very different. The daily count has fallen back gradually from the peak but remained stubbornly high. The reason for the divergence from the classical model remain unclear. We take an empirical stance on this issue and develop a model that is based upon the statistical characteristics of the time series. With the possible exception of China, the workhorse logistic model is decisively rejected against more flexible alternatives

Date: 2020-05
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ets
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.york.ac.uk/media/economics/documents/discussionpapers/2020/2006.pdf Main text (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:yor:yorken:20/06

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Discussion Papers from Department of Economics, University of York Department of Economics and Related Studies, University of York, York, YO10 5DD, United Kingdom. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Paul Hodgson ().

 
Page updated 2020-10-14
Handle: RePEc:yor:yorken:20/06