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Predicting the COVID-19 epidemic: is a regional approach preferable?

Laura Coroneo (), Fabrizio Iacone (), Giancarlo Manzi () and Silvia Salini

Discussion Papers from Department of Economics, University of York

Abstract: We use a SIRD model to predict the dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic in the Italian regions at 1 to 4 weeks ahead. Out of sample forecasting results indicate that national forecasts obtained by aggregating regional forecasts are more accurate than predictions from a national model. These results suggest that national health authorities should take into account the level of heterogeneity across regions when predicting the spread of a national epidemic.

Keywords: Forecasting; Aggregation; Forecast evaluation; Epidemic. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C12 C53 I18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021-09
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-for and nep-hea
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