The Dow Theory: William Peter Hamilton's Track Record Re-considered

Stephen Brown (sbrown@stern.nyu.edu), William Goetzmann and Alok Kumar (akumar@nd.edu)
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Alok Kumar: University of Notre Dame - Mendoza College of Business

Yale School of Management Working Papers from Yale School of Management

Abstract: Alfred Cowles' (1934) test of the Dow Theory apparently provided strong evidence against the ability of Wall Street's most famous chartist to forecast the stock market. In this paper, we review Cowles' evidence and find that it supports the contrary conclusion -- that the Dow Theory, as applied by its major practitioner, William Peter Hamilton over the period 1902 to 1929, yielded positive risk-adjusted returns. A re-analysis of the Hamilton editorials suggests that his timing strategies yield high Sharpe ratios and positive alphas. Neural net modeling to replicate Hamilton's market calls provides interesting insight into the nature and content of the Dow Theory. This allows us to examine the properties of the Dow Theory itself out-of-sample.

JEL-codes: C14 C22 G14 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2004-03-05
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dev, nep-fmk and nep-rmg
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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Related works:
Working Paper: The Dow Theory: William Peter Hamilton's Track Record Re-Considered (2008)
Working Paper: The Dow Theory: William Peter Hamilton's Track Record Re-Considered (2008)
Working Paper: The Dow Theory: William Peter Hamilton's Track Record Re-Considered (1998)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ysm:somwrk:ysm30

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