Predicting Electoral College Victory Probabilities from State Probability Data

Ray Fair

Yale School of Management Working Papers from Yale School of Management

Abstract: A method is proposed in this paper for predicting Electoral College victory probabilities from state probability data. A ranking assumption about dependencies across states is made that greatly simplifies the analysis. The method is used to analyze state probability data from the Intrade political betting market. The Intrade prices of various contracts are quite close to what would be expected under the ranking assumption. Under the joint hypothesis that the Intrade

Date: 2004-11-01
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ysm:wpaper:amz2406

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