Analyzing Macroeconomic Forecastability

Ray Fair

Yale School of Management Working Papers from Yale School of Management

Abstract: This paper examines whether recessions and booms are forecastable under the assumption that equity prices, housing prices, import prices, exports, and random shocks are not. Each of the 214 eight-quarter periods within the overall 1954:1-2009:1 period is examined regarding predictions of output growth and inflation. The results for low output growth vary by recession - there is no common pattern. Of the eight recessions, three are forecast well. For four of the five that are not, the main reason for each is not knowing: 1) the random shocks, 2) import prices and equity prices, 3) exports, and 4) exports and equity prices. For the fifth - the last one - all five components are large contributors, including housing prices: a perfect storm.

Keywords: macroeconomic forecasting; recessions; booms (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2009-06-01, Revised 2009-10-01
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ysm:wpaper:amz2443

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